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As governments target 50 per cent of new car sales to be electric by 2030, report finds the most reluctant buyers would deliver the most benefit.
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EV take-up by long-distance commuters ‘key to reducing emissions’
12 October 2022
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10 minute read
The key to hitting electric vehicle (EV) targets is convincing outer suburb commuters to make the switch and the government should avoid speeding towards car emissions policies that could backfire, according to a KPMG report.
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KPMG found that the best emissions bang for the buck comes from long-distance commuters but inner-city drivers are the ones buying, and cautioned that mandated tailpipe rules could put EVs further out of reach of the poorest buyers.
The firm’s report analysed EV uptake, vehicle use, age and type to determine which suburbs would deliver the best emissions turnaround.
It found persuading those driving from places like Craigieburn outside Melbourne, Logan near Brisbane or Fairfield in outer Sydney to buy battery-powered vehicles would bring the biggest emissions change.
The report showed dramatic differences in emissions reductions between inner and outer-city EVs:
- An EV in Craigieburn would save almost 10 times that of one in inner-city Melbourne.
- An EV in Logan would save five times that of one in Paddington, Brisbane.
- A Fairfield EV would save 1.5 times that of one in Neutral Bay, Sydney.
“Replacing one conventional vehicle in an outer suburb could lead to much higher emissions reductions than replacing one in an inner city,” said KPMG leader of planning and infrastructure economics Ben Ellis.
“This will be a result of the current geographic distribution of cars across postcodes, where concentrations of older emissions-intensive vehicles are clustered within outer suburban postcodes.”
The report also warned administrators that policies aimed at increasing EV uptake could hinder buyers who would make the biggest difference.
With EV uptake slowest among lower-income suburbs, the firm said emission-based vehicle taxes or a ban on the sale of new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles would hit those who could deliver the greatest emissions benefit.
The firm said policy-makers needed to weigh the socioeconomic factors influencing vehicle choice when shaping policies to promote EVs.
“Understanding EV uptake at a local level provides an opportunity for Australia to develop uptake policies and pathways that will help us go from EV laggard to EV leader,” said Mr Ellis.
“A range of state-level targets have been set with Victoria, NSW and Queensland announcing a target of 50 per cent by 2030.”
“Better understanding adoption of EVs at a suburb level and also the trends in existing car model ownership and travel preferences can help in evaluating and responding to geographical diversity in EV and internal combustion engine car ownership.”
As part of the government’s push to increase the uptake of EVs, it introduced an FBT exemption bill for the vehicles which will cost approximately $205 million over four years and is currently before the Senate.
According to official figures, Australians bought 21,771 EVs over the first nine months of the year — a fivefold increase over 2021.
However, they remain a tiny proportion of overall sales, at 2.7 per cent, and EVs typically start above the average price of new cars at $40,000-$50,000 for the most affordable Chinese small cars.
The Tesla Model Y (pictured), which made news by being the third most popular vehicle in September, starts at $72,300 before on-road costs.
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